Hurricane Irma - 12th September High Resolution Storm Surge Flood Footprint - SSBN

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The surge simulations for Irma have proven interesting because the surge heights predicted by the NOAA probabilistic surge height model (based on SLOSH) were quite different to those experienced on the ground. In general, the NOAA models overpredicted depths in the West and underpredicted in the East; Miami was not really expected to flood whereas surge heights of 10-15 feet were expected for the Cape Coral region.

We have used observed water heights from the active real-time tide gauges located around Florida to calculate the disparity between modelled and observed surge heights. These gauge points were interpolated onto a 2D grid to create a correction surface that adjusted the relevant NOAA surge projections.