Climate and Catastrophe Risk Modelling in Asia:
Open Risk Modelling for the benefit of governments, businesses and individuals
The costs of disasters are increasing around the world, stretching the ability of many governments, individuals and businesses to absorb the losses and recover from such events. Understanding risk is a key priority for many countries, but risk data is lacking and the required modelling out of reach of many.
Within a project launched in 2018 with support from the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), an international consortium is co-developing new catastrophe risk models for flood in the Philippines and cyclones in Bangladesh on the open-source Oasis Loss Modelling platform, more information available here. Users will be able to estimate disaster losses today and the future impacts of climate change at both the local and national level.
The first data sets for Bangladesh developed by the UK Met Office are being released this week on the Oasis Hub, with further updates and more data releases coming over the next several months from the project partners across both countries. All data sets will be released on the Oasis Hub.
The project brings together in-country scientific expertise and data with international expertise in catastrophe risk modelling. Through the co-development process, risk modelling capacity is being developed in each country for the long term, giving in-country institutions the capability and tools to update models and develop new ones. This will enable risk bearers to better understand their risk and make decisions on appropriate adaptation and risk financing mechanisms on an ongoing basis.
The output from the Oasis LMF platform is designed to meet the needs of multiple stakeholders to visualize their risk exposure and quantify expected losses. The platform incorporates an industry-standard loss simulation engine, enabling the design and testing of risk transfer structures and what-if analysis. The use of the open-source Oasis platform brings the benefits of international standards on catastrophe risk modelling whilst lowering the barriers to developing, accessing, and deploying catastrophe risk models in-country.
Partners involved in the IKI project include the U.K. Met Office; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); National Reinsurance Corporation of Philippines (Nat Re); the Disaster Risk and Exposure Assessment for Mitigation program of the Philippines (UP DREAM); the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA); experts from the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET); Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Bangladesh Department of Disaster Management (DDM), the Bangladesh International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN); technology, management, education and governance consultancy KiteTrackers of Bangladesh; catastrophe modelling company KatRisk, and international reinsurance brokers Willis Towers Watson and Tysers.